Trump and Xi Jinping's 'loving relationship' and bitterness: What will Trump's second term prove to be for China?
Trump’s Second Term: A New Era For China Relations?
Pros for China
1. Unpredictability Can Be Exploited:
- Trump's often erratic foreign policy could create openings for China to exploit gaps in U.S. strategy, especially in regions like Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East.
- His preference for bilateral deals over multilateral agreements could weaken global coalitions aimed at counterbalancing China.
2. Focus on Domestic Politics:
- Trump’s “America First” approach might reduce the U.S.'s willingness to engage in overseas commitments, giving China more room to expand its global influence, particularly in regions where the U.S. may pull back.
3. Limited Focus on Human Rights:
- Trump has shown less interest in emphasizing human rights in foreign policy. This could mean less U.S. pressure on sensitive issues for China, such as Hong Kong, Xinjiang, and Tibet.
4. Potential Easing of Tariffs:
- Trump’s business-oriented mindset may lead to negotiations to ease the tariffs imposed during his first term if he perceives economic benefits for the U.S., potentially reducing friction.
Cons for China
1. Trade War Resumption:
- Trump may resume or intensify the trade war with China, increasing tariffs and economic pressure. His rhetoric often targeted China as an economic adversary.
2. Strengthened Anti-China Alliances:
- Despite his disdain for multilateral organizations, Trump could strengthen bilateral alliances (e.g., with India, Japan, and Australia) that are designed to counterbalance China’s rise, particularly in the Indo-Pacific.
3. Technology Decoupling:
- Trump’s policies on technology, such as banning TikTok and Huawei during his first term, might expand to a broader tech decoupling, limiting China’s access to critical U.S. technologies.
4. Military Tensions:
- Trump's administration oversaw an increase in U.S. naval activity in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait. A second term could see even more aggressive military posturing.
5. Economic Competition Intensification:
- Trump’s focus on reshoring manufacturing to the U.S. could undermine China's role as the world's factory. Incentives for U.S. companies to relocate from China may increase.
Uncertain Factors
1. Personal Relationship with Xi Jinping:
- Trump’s past references to his “good relationship” with Xi Jinping might suggest room for negotiation. However, the relationship soured during the COVID-19 pandemic, which Trump blamed on China.
2. Climate and Global Governance:
- Trump’s disdain for climate agreements like the Paris Accord might reduce U.S. leadership in global governance, potentially allowing China to fill the vacuum.
Conclusion
Trump’s second term would likely bring a mix of opportunities and challenges for China. While his unpredictable nature and transactional approach might offer tactical openings, the intensification of economic and strategic competition could lead to heightened tensions. The outcome would depend on how both nations manage their relationship and global ambitions amidst shifting geopolitical realities.
A group of pensioners are engaged in physical exercise at a sports park next to the red-walled and blue-bricked Temple of Heaven in Beijing.
After finishing the exercise, one man said, “I am 74 years old, and I hope this (exercise) will keep me alive for a long time.”
A cool breeze blows through the leaves of the pine trees, making it difficult for the man exercising overhead. Women come to put on their gloves and sweaters after their exercise.
Chinese emperors once came to the sacred site of the Ming Dynasty and prayed for a good harvest. After decades of contributing to China’s development, residents now come to the park to enjoy themselves after retirement.
They have seen their country rise on the global stage and their economy grow, which is now on par with the world's largest developed country, the United States.
Now some of them are worried about the implementation of the promises of the newly elected US President Donald Trump, in which he vowed to impose heavy taxes on Chinese goods, thus directly affecting China's exports, which play an important role in China's economy.
Opinions about Trump in China
For many people in China, Trump is just a fun character and memes of his dance are also shared on social media. A 74-year-old pensioner, whose name is not being disclosed here, said, "I like Trump. But he is unbalanced. Who knows what he will do?"
People are now even more worried about the way Trump has nominated his cabinet since his election.
Trump has nominated Marco Rubio for secretary of state, who in one of his first statements called Beijing a threat that will shape the direction of this century.
Trump has nominated Mike Waltz as national security adviser, who wrote earlier this month that the United States should immediately resolve conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East and ultimately focus on the real threat: containing the Chinese Communist Party.
Yu Jie, a senior research fellow at Chatham House in London, says China is already preparing for a second term for Trump.
Despite public concerns, Trump’s return is not a big surprise for China, she says. She warns that the world should be prepared for a change in relations between the two countries when Trump takes office in January.
‘Beijing’s Cold War is a warning to Washington’
The rivalry between China and the United States had been growing long before Trump’s victory. Under the Biden administration, the relationship had been strained, particularly over the decision to impose tariffs on Chinese goods and over “geopolitical” disagreements such as the Ukraine war and the future of Taiwan.
Despite all this, talks between the two countries have continued. Several senior US officials have visited Beijing. Chinese President Xi Jinping has expressed his commitment to working with the new US president. In his last meeting with Joe Biden, he also warned Washington not to "fight a new Cold War and it will never be won."
He said that “blocking China’s path would be unwise, unacceptable and doomed to failure.” Beijing has long accused the US and its allies of “blocking China’s path.” Tariffs on Chinese goods, restrictions on access to advanced AI chips, and military alliances in the South China Sea and beyond are seen by China as attempts to block its path.
Lyle Morris of the Asia Society Center for China says Trump’s selection of names like Rubio and Waltz for his cabinet indicates that the new US administration will adopt a more tough and confrontational approach toward China.
According to him, “While Trump’s personal relationship with President Xi will help keep the door open for negotiations, Trump will likely be more lenient with his Secretary of State and National Security Advisor, which means that America’s policy on China will be very tough.”
Both of these newly appointed officials see China as a threat to American security and its economy.
“You’re doing much better here than in America right now,” said a 74-year-old man in the park during a break from exercising.
From the spread of the coronavirus to the nuclear arms race
North of the Temple of Heaven is the Forbidden City, where China’s imperial family lived for nearly five centuries. In 2017, President Xi hosted Trump here. This honor has not been held by any other US president since the founding of China.
President Xi had closed the area to the general public and invited President Trump to visit it. The visit was covered live on TV. Trump was served kung pao chicken for dinner here. During this, a video of his granddaughter Arabella Kushner humming a Chinese song also went viral on social media.
It was hailed by both sides as the high point of Sino-US relations. But in 2019, the relationship turned sour when the coronavirus outbreak began in the Chinese city of Wuhan and then spread around the world in 2020. Trump repeatedly called it the “Chinese virus.”
Trump also launched a “whatever you do” trade war and imposed tariffs on $300 billion in Chinese goods.
As Trump begins his second term, he will face a strong President Xi, who is in his third term as Chinese president and will likely be China’s leader for life.
China already has the world’s largest army and navy, and Washington is also concerned that China is now building the world’s largest nuclear arsenal. As Trump was announcing his cabinet, Chinese state media released a video showing the country’s new J-35A stealth fighter jet, which swooped and swooped at the country’s largest air show.
China is the second country in the world, after the United States, to have two stealth fighters in its fleet. The world’s first two stealth fighters, the J-20S, were also on display.
Last week, researchers at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in California saw satellite images that appear to show China working on nuclear propulsion for a new aircraft carrier.
Tong Zhao of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace said the studies raised serious concerns about China’s “first-use policy” and the rise of nuclear threats.
“Unless Trump himself takes an interest in this, which is unlikely, the two countries will find themselves in a fierce nuclear arms race, with implications for global stability,” he said.
Taiwan dispute
Under President Xi’s leadership, China has become more aggressive in its claims to the South China Sea and Taiwan in recent years. Now, there is also concern that China has begun preparing for a military invasion of Taiwan, which China sees as a breakaway province that it will eventually subjugate.
Will the US defend Taiwan under Trump and his cabinet?
This is a question that every US president is asked. Trump has given a different answer. He said he would not use military force because Xi knew he was “crazy” and that if he did, he would impose very heavy tariffs on Chinese imports as punishment.
Despite Trump’s statements about not getting involved in foreign wars, most experts expect Washington to continue providing military aid to Taipei. First, the US is legally obligated to sell the island defensive weapons. Second, the Trump administration has sold more weapons to Taiwan than any other administration.
Lyle Morris says there is strong bipartisan support for continuing military aid to Taiwan. According to him, "I don't expect Trump to make any significant changes regarding arms sales to Taiwan."
What is Trump’s opinion of Xi Jinping?
Despite their differences, Trump seems to appreciate the strongman image of Chinese President Xi Jinping. In 2020, despite their bitter trade relations, he stated that he and Xi Jinping “love each other.”
In a recent interview with the Wall Street Journal, Trump said, “I have a very strong relationship with him.”
It’s hard to know what President Xi is thinking right now. He has spoken little about his relationship with Trump and has rarely mentioned Trump by name.
In 2018, China’s state-run media CGTN interviewed the US leader live and aired a humorous video of him, titled “Thank you Mr. Trump, you’re great!” The video was later removed.
What we do know so far is that both leaders are nationalists. President Xi is committed to the “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation,” while Trump believes he is the president who can “make America great again.”
Both claim to be leading their countries into a new golden age. Trump’s golden age is to impose tariffs of up to 60 percent on Chinese goods. But Beijing doesn’t seem in the mood for another trade war; it has its own problems.
A slowing economy versus Elon Musk
President Xi’s dream of prosperity is in trouble. China’s economy is slowing. Its property sector is collapsing. 20 percent of its young people are still looking for work, and it has the world’s oldest population.
At the Temple of Heaven, we joined a group of Chinese people walking through the city’s white marble gates. It has become fashionable for young people to wear royal robes.
During the tour of the city, dozens of school groups listened intently to the guide’s account of their city’s history. I noticed a middle-aged woman dressed in black. She was praying in a special way. We asked her what she was praying for. She said that many people come here and pray for their children to get jobs or to get into a good school.
“We pray for a good and prosperous life,” she said. Although China claims to have eradicated poverty, millions of laborers and factory workers across the country who helped make China’s rise a reality will be worried about what comes next.
Its future, and the future of China’s economy, may depend in part on how serious Trump is about his tariffs on Chinese goods. This time, according to Yu Jie, Beijing is prepared.
“China has already begun to diversify its agricultural import sources (especially from Brazil, Argentina and Russia) and has increased the volume of its exports to non-US allies. Recent reinvestment of local government debt domestically is also paving the way for averting the negative effects of a potential trade war with the Trump administration,” he said.
Beijing may have another hope. Billionaire Elon Musk now appears to be Trump’s closest ally. His company, Tesla, relies on China. About half of its electric vehicles (EVs) are manufactured in China. Chinese leaders may be considering whether Musk can make a difference in Trump’s trade resolve.
But the great power struggle of the 21st century is not just about trade. President Xi’s dream also includes making China the world’s dominant power. Some experts believe that this is where another Trump term could provide Beijing with an opportunity.
China’s Place in the World
“Chinese leaders will reinforce the narrative that the United States is the single most destructive source of global instability by portraying China as a responsible and confident global power,” says Yu Jie.
US President Joe Biden has spent four years building friendships across Asia with South Korea, Japan, the Philippines and Vietnam, all in an effort to contain China.
In the past, Trump’s “America First” doctrine has isolated and weakened these US alliances, setting the stage for fragile diplomacy and costing the US a lot of diplomatic damage.
In 2018, the US demanded more money from South Korea to maintain a US military presence in the country. Beijing has already formed alliances with emerging economies. It is also trying to mend its ties with Britain and Europe, while addressing historical grievances with its Asian neighbours, South Korea and Japan.
If Washington’s influence around the world diminishes, it could be a victory for President Xi Jinping.
Now back to the park where we’re discussing the results of the US election, a man holds up four fingers. “He only has four years.” America is always changing leaders. In China, we have more time.
Time is indeed on Beijing’s side. President Xi can stay president for life and so can afford to make slow but steady progress toward his goals. Even if Trump gets in the way, this obstacle won’t last long.
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