China's Military Diplomacy: A New Era Of Influence

How is China countering growing American influence in the region through 'military diplomacy'?

China's Military Diplomacy: A New Era Of Influence

Siddharth Roy

Post, Asia Specialist

China's Military Diplomacy Strategies

1. Arms Sales 

   - Supplying weapons to countries in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East at competitive prices.  

   - Prominent buyers include Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Myanmar.  

2. Joint Military Exercises  

   - Conducting exercises with regional partners like Russia (e.g., Vostok drills) and countries in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).  

3. Military Infrastructure Investments 

   - Establishing a military base in Djibouti and securing dual-use facilities like ports in Pakistan (Gwadar) and Sri Lanka (Hambantota).  

4. Training and Capacity Building

   - Offering training programs to officers from developing countries, showcasing its military technology and fostering loyalty.  

5. Peacekeeping and Disaster Relief  

   - Actively participating in UN peacekeeping missions and providing disaster relief to enhance its soft power.  

6. Regional Institutions 

   - Promoting regional mechanisms such as the SCO and participating in ASEAN-centric forums like the ASEAN Defence Ministers’ Meeting Plus (ADMM-Plus).

Pros of China's Military Diplomacy

1.Regional Influence

   - Strengthens ties with countries skeptical of U.S. policies, creating an alternative security architecture.  

2. Economic Leverage  

   - Arms deals and port development integrate military goals with the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), enhancing China's economic clout.  

3. Global Power Projection  

   - Demonstrates China's ability to operate militarily beyond its borders, signaling its emergence as a global power.  

4. Strategic Partnerships

   - Deepens alliances with key states like Pakistan, Russia, and Central Asian countries to counterbalance U.S.-led alliances.  

5. Image Building 

   - Participation in peacekeeping and humanitarian missions helps portray China as a responsible power.  

Cons of China's Military Diplomacy

1. Suspicion and Backlash

   - Increased militarization of diplomacy triggers suspicion among neighbors and prompts countermeasures, such as the U.S.-India defense alignment and AUKUS.  

2. Debt Diplomacy Allegations  

   - Dual-use port investments face criticism as coercive tactics, undermining trust in China's intentions.  

3. Limited Trust in Arms Quality

   - Concerns over the reliability of Chinese military equipment compared to Western alternatives limit its market appeal.  

4. Overstretching Resources 

   - Expanding military diplomacy can strain China’s economic and military resources over time.  

5. Risk of Conflict

   - Aggressive military posturing, particularly in contested areas like the South China Sea, risks escalating tensions with the U.S. and its allies.  

6. Dependence on Authoritarian Regimes 

   - Many of China's arms buyers are authoritarian regimes, making these relationships fragile and prone to shifts during political upheavals.  

Conclusion

China's military diplomacy is a calculated attempt to build influence, challenge U.S. hegemony, and secure its global interests. While it provides China with strategic advantages, it also carries significant risks, including backlash, resource strain, and potential escalation of regional tensions. How successful it will be depends on Beijing's ability to balance its ambitions with regional stability.

Beijing has been increasing its military diplomacy around the world over the past two years amid rising political tensions between China and the US.

This trend has been particularly visible in Russia, the Asia-Pacific region and under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) project, in which China is focusing on its trading partners.

Since China ended its ‘zero Covid policy’ in January 2023, there has been an increase in high-level meetings, military-level diplomatic exchanges, goodwill visits, joint naval exercises and other training exercises.

An examination of the records from January 2023 to October 2024 reveals clear facts of the increase in military outreach.

This brief review is intended to provide more information about China’s military diplomacy efforts. The analysis includes meetings between senior Chinese officials and their foreign counterparts, goodwill visits and other major military events, but does not include joint military exercises with other countries.

The BBC obtained data on China's military diplomacy from official sources, including the People's Liberation Army Daily website, the official website Huanqiu Weng and the website of the Chinese Ministry of Defense.

The analysis covers events between the beginning of 2023 and October 31, 2024. China carried out 148 military diplomacy activities in 2023 and 169 by October 31, 2024, which provide us with important information about its strategy.

China-Russia relations on the rise

China has held 11 meetings, six military exercises and six goodwill visits with Russia at various times in the past two years.

Of the numerous activities between the Chinese and Russian militaries during this period, about half were high-level meetings. They also included six joint exercises and six port calls.

This increase has been seen after the two countries’ 2022 ‘No Limits’ partnership, which reflects the two countries’ shared interests in countering US influence and maintaining regional and global security. All this is especially important to see in the context of the Russia-Ukraine war.

China has also seen an increase in military diplomacy with Vietnam and Cambodia. When it comes to military activities, these two countries are second and third after Russia.

Military diplomacy activities with Vietnam included nine meetings, nine military-level exchanges and three goodwill visits, while with Cambodia, three goodwill visits and two training sessions were held.

A military event was held with China’s close friend Pakistan, and meetings were emphasized. Similarly, high-level Chinese officials met with India and the United States.

South Africa remained busy with meetings and goodwill visits with China, while Indonesia mainly conducted goodwill visits.

China held 11 meetings, six exercises and six goodwill visits with Russia

Relations with North Korea and Iran

Before COVID-19, China held three high-level military meetings with North Korea, attended by Zhang Yuxia, Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission.

Since lifting its COVID sanctions, China has not publicly resumed military diplomacy with North Korea, reflecting the stagnation in relations between the two countries. However, experts also say that China is doing so to evade Western sanctions for indirectly supporting Russia through North Korea.

On October 6, 2024, to mark the 75th anniversary of China-North Korea relations, China sent Zhao Lijie, a top leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), to Pyongyang, but no military leaders from either side attended the event.

North Korea was conspicuously absent from the 2024 Xiangshan. The forum is an annual security summit that North Korea usually attends.

Similarly, China's last military activity with Iran was in April 2022, when then-Chinese Defense Minister Wei Fenghe met with then-President Ebrahim Raisi.

There has been no public bilateral military diplomacy since then, although Iran was part of joint naval exercises with China and Russia in March 2023 and March 2024.

Why is the South China Sea important?

It is building military relations with the most important ‘ASEAN’ countries to further consolidate its dominance in the South China Sea.

Despite disputes with Vietnam and Indonesia, Beijing maintains military diplomacy with both countries, which are among its main Asian trading partners.

Laos and Cambodia, considered China’s closest political allies, are among the five ASEAN countries we have mentioned. They also include Vietnam, Thailand and Indonesia.

In 2024, most military diplomacy activities were concentrated in Asia and Oceania.

Almost half of China’s military activities in Europe are due to Russia. However, there were also notable meetings with the UK, Belarus, Serbia and France.

Coast Guard Patrols Increased

Following a maritime law enforcement agreement reached with Russia's Federal Security Service in April 2023, Chinese coast guard patrols also increased in 2024.

In 2024, joint patrols between the air forces, coast guards, and navies of China and Russia expanded to the Bering Sea, North Pacific Ocean, Arctic, Pacific, and Northwest Passage.

The Role of the Chinese Navy in Military Diplomacy

The People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has rapidly established itself in Chinese military diplomacy and is now second only to the People's Liberation Army in this regard.

In addition to patrols and training, the Chinese Navy has expanded its goodwill efforts through port calls and medical missions. It has offered free healthcare through its medical support ships.

As of October 2024, it had completed 22 port calls and 12 medical visits, up from 17 port calls and eight medical visits in 2023.

The Navy’s missions in the Gulf of Aden have further expanded its goodwill activities, enhanced its capabilities, and safeguarded China’s development interests.

The Chinese Navy typically sends three fleets on security missions to protect its sea lanes from piracy and ensure the safety of international shipping.

But only one mission was deployed to the Gulf of Aden in 2024, which analysts see as an operational shift for the Chinese Navy.

This strategy gives a fleet the ability to remain in the region for long periods of time and also receives logistical support from its base in the country of Djibouti.

China has been hosting a number of military events, including conferences, forums, sporting events, air shows, parades and defence exhibitions, in the country to enhance its soft power globally, and this is set to increase in 2024 compared to 2023.

Of these, China hosted a total of 16 events, seven in 2023 and nine by October 2024.

China sent military representatives to 18 international events. These included three defence exhibitions and five air shows, which were mainly held in Asia, Oceania, the Middle East and Africa.

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