Meeting of Arab leaders in Riyadh: The Middle East oscillates between hope and uncertainty on Trump's return
Frank Gardner
Designation, Security Correspondent
Arab Leaders Unite A New Chapter For The Middle East
1. Increased Focus on Israel-Palestine Conflict
Arab leaders have recently gathered in Riyadh under the Arab League and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) frameworks to push for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza and Lebanon. This unified call highlights the growing resolve to address what they see as unjust aggression by Israel, with leaders discussing possible economic and diplomatic responses aimed at supporting Palestinian rights.
2. Shift Toward Strategic Autonomy
This summit marked a departure from relying solely on Western powers for regional issues. Some countries are considering measures like reducing economic dependence on Israel and pursuing partnerships with non-Western allies, notably China, which offers substantial investment without the human rights demands typically tied to Western aid.
3. U.S. Engagement with GCC+3
The United States is responding to these shifts by strengthening ties with Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, as well as Egypt, Iraq, and Jordan. President Biden's recent visits to Saudi Arabia and his participation in the GCC+3 Summit underscore a strategy to reassert U.S. influence and counterbalance China's growing role. Biden discussed energy cooperation, regional stability, and projects like linking Iraq’s power grid to the GCC, which could reduce Iraq’s dependence on Iran.
4. Human Rights Concerns
Biden’s interactions with Arab leaders, particularly in Saudi Arabia, were also shaped by contentious human rights issues. Despite his condemnation of past actions by Saudi leadership, Biden’s visit is seen as a pragmatic move to ensure continued cooperation in oil production and regional security. This has sparked debates on the U.S. balancing act between strategic interests and human rights.
5. Towards a Multipolar Middle East
With regional alliances shifting, there is a strong indication of the Middle East moving towards a multipolar structure. The potential for closer ties between Arab nations and powers like China signifies a readiness for diversified international relations, reducing the historic U.S. and Western dominance in the region.
Dozens of heads of Arab and Muslim countries, including Pakistan's Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif, have gathered in Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia, for a meeting where predictions are being made about how Donald Trump's second term as US president will be and his Middle East. What would be the meaning for
In Europe, Trump is seen as an unpredictable leader, but contrary to such fears, the Gulf Arab countries consider him a stable leader.
In the opinion column of Arab News, a prominent business leader of the United Arab Emirates, Khalaf al-Habtoor is quoted as saying, "The importance of security in the Middle East is above all, and in this context, Trump's Building stronger ties with US allies in the region and focusing on extremist forces is the best way forward.'
In Saudi Arabia, Trump is more popular than Joe Biden.
Trump chose Riyadh for his first foreign trip as president in 2017. He is believed to have been given the idea by Rupert Murdoch.
Because of his son-in-law Jared Kushner, Trump has a good relationship with the Saudi ruler and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
MBS never forgave Biden for his statement that Saudi Arabia would have to answer for human rights abuses.
In 2020, Trump signed the 'Abraham Accords', according to which the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Morocco established full diplomatic relations with Israel, and Sudan also agreed to establish relations with Israel.
In the Middle East, there are mixed perceptions of Trump's presidency.
On the one hand, Trump has pleased Israel by recognizing Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and recognizing Israeli sovereignty over the occupied Golan Heights, but he has upset the Arab world with this move.
But then Trump signed the 'Abraham Accord' in 2020, according to which the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Morocco established full diplomatic relations with Israel, and Sudan also agreed to establish relations with Israel.
But Trump's attitude towards Iran has been aggressive.
In 2018, Trump pulled the US out of the nuclear deal with Iran.
Calling it the worst deal in history, he echoed the views of many governments in the region. He said the deal was intended to curb Iran's nuclear ambitions but failed to address Iran's ballistic missile program, while the deal enriched the Revolutionary Guards with money that they used to fund their proxies in the region. Used to.
In 2020, Trump ordered the death of General Qassem Soleimani, head of the Revolutionary Guards' Quds Force, which pleased the Gulf Arab states but angered Iran.
But today's Middle East is very different from the Middle East it was four years ago when Trump left the White House.
Israel's war against Hamas and Hezbollah continues, while it has carried out operations against the Houthis in Yemen and their facilitators in Iran.
The perception of the Biden administration in the region is that the White House could not play an effective role in restraining its close ally Israel during the wars in Gaza and Lebanon.
Mediated by China, Saudi Arabia and Iran have agreed to resolve their differences
It is believed that Trump's return to the White House will give Israel more 'free hand' to target targets (oil and nuclear facilities) in Iran that were blocked by the Biden administration.
Joshua Steinrich, a former Israeli intelligence officer, says he has become an important ally in the region because he openly supports Israel and takes a strong stance against Iran's efforts to destabilize it. Their return will be seen in the context of a concerted effort to reduce Iran's influence.
But some things have changed quite a bit in the region.
Mediated by China, Saudi Arabia and Iran have agreed to resolve their differences. This ended the seven-year rivalry. In those seven years, there was a war in Yemen where the Saudi Air Force bombed the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels.
On Sunday, the Saudi army chief went to Tehran and met his Iranian counterpart. The two countries are now in talks to increase cooperation on defense and security issues.
Since the 1979 Iranian revolution, Saudi Arabia and its Sunni Arab neighbors have viewed Iran as a major threat in the region. Drone attacks on oil facilities in Saudi Arabia in 2019 are a reminder to the Gulf Arab states of how vulnerable they would appear in the event of an attack by Iran.
Today, as the Arab-Islamic Summit calls for an end to the wars in Gaza and Lebanon, there is also hope and uncertainty about changes in the Middle East during Trump's second term.
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#Saudi_Arabia #Iran #The_Middle_East #Donald_Trump #Israel #America
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