Why is US ally Saudi Arabia getting closer to Tehran instead of Israel?
Analyzing US-Saudi Relations In The Context Of Iran
Dilnawaz Pasha
Aheda, BBC News
Pros of Saudi Arabia Getting Closer to Iran
1.Regional Stability
Improved Saudi-Iran relations could reduce tensions in the Middle East, especially in conflict zones like Yemen and Syria.
2.Economic Opportunities
Cooperation between these two major oil-producing nations could stabilize global energy markets and foster regional trade.
3.Diplomatic Leverage
By engaging with Iran, Saudi Arabia diversifies its alliances, reducing overreliance on the U.S. or any single partner.
4.Counterbalancing Rivalries
Closer ties with Iran might de-escalate proxy wars and sectarian divides, promoting unity in the Islamic world.
5.China's Influence
Mediation by China in Saudi-Iran reconciliation could enhance Saudi Arabia’s role in emerging multipolar global politics.
Cons of Saudi Arabia Getting Closer to Iran
1.Strain with Western Allies
The U.S. and Israel might view closer Saudi-Iran ties as undermining their strategic interests, leading to tensions.
2.Trust Issues
Decades of hostility and ideological differences between Saudi Arabia and Iran could make sustainable cooperation challenging.
3.Impact on Normalization with Israel
Aligning with Iran may stall or derail Saudi Arabia's efforts to establish diplomatic relations with Israel.
4.Domestic Backlash
Saudi Arabia’s Sunni leadership risks criticism from hardliners over engaging with Iran, a Shia-majority state.
5.Proxy Wars Continuation
If not managed carefully, unresolved disputes (e.g., Yemen, Lebanon) could reignite conflicts despite rapprochement efforts.
Saudi Arabia and Iran are important countries in the Middle East and are also considered rivals for the leadership of the Islamic world. The relations between these two influential countries in the Middle East, Sunni-majority Saudi Arabia and Shia-majority Iran, have been complex and tense.
Religious, political and regional reasons affect the relations between these two countries. But after China's mediation between Saudi Arabia and Iran in March 2023 and then the events of October 7 last year between Israel and the Palestinians, a lot has changed in the relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
Recent events show that these two traditional rivals are now trying to bridge the gap and appear together.
Two meetings have taken place between Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in the past month. This development is unusual given the history of relations between the two countries.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on Wednesday without hesitation that “regional dialogue is not an option but a necessity.”
“There are common concerns and common interests,” the Iranian foreign minister wrote on Twitter after attending the Arab summit in the Saudi capital, Riyadh, saying, “We all understand the importance of cooperation and coordination in facing the major crises facing the region. It is not an option but a necessity, we all agreed on it.”
Meanwhile, Iranian Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref met with the Saudi Crown Prince after an extraordinary and emergency conference of Islamic countries in Riyadh last Monday.
During this meeting, Mohammad Reza Aref also invited Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to visit Iran and said that the new path opened for the development of relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia is an “irreversible path.”
After meeting the Saudi Crown Prince, the Iranian Vice President also said that improving relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia will not only benefit the two countries and the Middle East, but will also increase brotherhood between the Islamic countries of the region.
The Iranian Vice President also said that after improving political relations between the two countries, cooperation in the economic, cultural, scientific and technological sectors will also increase.
At the same time, after meeting the Iranian Vice President, the Saudi Crown Prince also said that improving relations with Iran is in the interest of Saudi Arabia.
The Saudi Crown Prince also spoke to the Iranian President on the phone last Sunday, a day before the Arab countries’ conference in Riyadh. However, the Iranian President did not attend the conference held in Riyadh due to his busy schedule.
According to Iranian state media, during this phone call, the Iranian President told the Saudi Crown Prince that he hoped that relations between the two countries would further improve.
According to Iranian media, speaking on the phone with President Masoud Pezishkian, the Saudi crown prince said that relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia are currently at a historic juncture and he hopes that they will reach the highest level.
On Sunday, Saudi Arabia’s Army Chief General Fayez bin Humaid al-Rawi arrived in Tehran and met with Iranian Army Chief Major General Mohammad Baqeri.
In this meeting, the two countries discussed cooperation in the defense sector.
Saudi-Iran relations
There is a direct ethnic divide between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Saudi Arabia is a Sunni-majority country and the center of Islam, while Iran is Shia-majority and is the center of Shia Islam. For this reason, there have been historical ideological differences between the two countries.
There has also been hostility between Saudi Arabia and Iran over the representation of the Muslim world. The Islamic Revolution in Iran took place in 1979, after which tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran increased further.
However, analysts believe that the reason for the hostility between Iran and Saudi Arabia is not religious ideology or sectarian division, but regional reasons.
International affairs expert Mudassar Khan says that ‘there is a common perception that the tension between these two countries is because Saudi Arabia is Sunni and Iran is Shia. Saudi Arabia and Iran are rivals to each other and it is also a fact that one country is Shia and the other is Sunni. But the tension and hostility between them is due to global politics.
He says, “It is not necessary that one of these countries wants to harm the interests of the other country, but it is important that neither Iran wants Saudi Arabia to become too influential nor Saudi Arabia wants Iran to be the most powerful in the Middle East. This has been the main reason for the tension between Iran and Saudi Arabia in the Middle East.”
In recent years, the conflict between the interests of Iran and Saudi Arabia has become clear. Iran supports the Houthi rebels in Yemen, while Saudi Arabia is fighting against the Houthis.
By improving relations with Iran, Saudi Arabia wants to achieve a ceasefire with the Houthis and end the Yemen conflict. The Houthis also pose a threat to Saudi Arabia’s oil and gas resources.
The United States also has an influence on the relationship between the two countries. The United States sees Iran’s growing power as a threat, and Saudi Arabia has relied heavily on the United States for its security.
But in recent years, Saudi Arabia has made efforts to reduce its dependence on the United States for security. Regional stability and security are at the top of Saudi Arabia’s goals for 2030.
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman believes that only regional stability will lead to economic growth in the Middle East.
In March 2023, China announced that it would mediate between Saudi Arabia and Iran and restore diplomatic relations between the two countries. In recent years, Iran has further strengthened its ties with Russia, which also signals the increasing involvement of global powers such as China and Russia in the Middle East, in addition to the United States.
From Arab vs. Israel to Iran vs. Arab
In the early days of world politics, Middle Eastern politics was Arab vs. Israel. The wars of 1948, 1967, and 1973 were between Arabs and Israelis.
But in the last fifteen to twenty years, non-Arab countries have also had an impact on the Middle East, especially Iran and Turkey, and Iran's influence in the Middle East has increased significantly.
Iran is directly expanding its sphere of influence in the Middle East through its power and supported groups. Iran is currently a major power in the Middle East.
Moqtaddar Khan, a professor at the University of Delaware in the United States and an expert on international affairs, says that 'the effect of this was that the Arab countries of the Middle East began to consider Iran a major threat and the Arab countries changed their relations with it, and as a result, the Abraham Accords with Israel were signed.'
According to him, the agreements reached between Israel and the Arab countries under the mediation of the United States were aimed at normalizing relations with Israel. The United Arab Emirates and Bahrain became the first Arab countries to restore relations with Israel in 2020.
Later, Sudan and Morocco also joined these agreements and restored relations with Israel. Following these agreements, Israeli embassies were opened in Arab countries and direct flights began. Efforts were also made to increase cooperation in several other areas.
The clear message of the Abraham Accords was that Iran was a greater threat than Israel in the Middle East.
The situation after the Israeli attacks on Gaza
But now this situation has also changed after the events of October 7. Saudi Arabia, which was going to reach an agreement with Israel through US mediation, has not yet reached an agreement with Israel.
It should be remembered that on October 7, 2023, Hamas attacked Israel last year, killing more than 1,200 Israelis. After this, Israel launched a major military campaign in Gaza and over the past 13 months, more than 43,000 Palestinians have been killed and millions have been displaced in Israeli attacks, and now this fight has reached Lebanon.
For the first time in recent months, Israel has also directly attacked Iran, and Iran has responded to missile attacks on Israel. Tensions between Israel and Iran are also at their peak and the possibility of it reaching a military clash has increased.
Analysts believe that the October 7 attacks have derailed the normal relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia and forced Saudi Arabia to think about getting closer to Iran.
Moqtaddar Khan says, “Israel and the US want Israel to make an agreement with Saudi Arabia to isolate Iran. But if Saudi Arabia improves its relations with Iran and stops considering Iran a threat to itself, Saudi Arabia will no longer need to bow to Israel.”
Donald Trump, who has been mediating agreements between Israel and Arab countries, has been re-elected as US president. Analysts believe that this will also affect the situation in the Middle East.
Moqtaddar Khan says, “After Donald Trump becomes US president, Saudi Arabia will be under pressure to make an agreement with Israel.” In such a situation, either Saudi Arabia can ignore this pressure or increase its demands for an agreement.’
‘But in the current situation in the Middle East, the relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia are the most important. If relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia deteriorate, Saudi Arabia will leave the Palestinian issue and then sooner or later make an agreement with Israel.’
According to him, ‘Recent signs are that Saudi Arabia and Iran are getting closer. For example, last year, Saudi Arabia and Iran restored diplomatic relations through China. The armies of both countries have also conducted joint exercises.’
Last Monday, at an emergency conference of Arab countries regarding the situation in the Middle East in the Saudi capital Riyadh, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman used very harsh language for Israel and said that Israel is committing genocide.
Moqtaddar Khan says that ‘This harshness in Mohammed bin Salman’s language is due to better relations with Iran. "If Saudi Arabia's relations with Iran improve, it will have a direct impact on the agreement with Israel and will also have an impact on the Middle East."
Why are Iran and Saudi Arabia getting closer?
Analysts believe that both Iran and Saudi Arabia are forced to overcome their differences and try to improve their relations.
Professor Mudassar Khan says that ‘to some extent, both countries want to improve their relations, but the progress that is happening now is a direct indication that Saudi Arabia and Iran want to increase their ties with each other and the direct reason for this is the current situation in the Middle East.’
According to him, however, Saudi Arabia will have to proceed very carefully because Saudi Arabia cannot take the risk of being directly involved in a military conflict.
Mudassar Khan says that ‘if the talks between Saudi Arabia and Iran reach a military conflict, Saudi Arabia will not want to be directly involved in this conflict. Because Iran and Israel are both military powers, but Saudi Arabia is not a military power. Saudi Arabia certainly has political and economic power, but it does not have such a powerful army.
According to him, Saudi Arabia does not want to be in a situation where its own security is at risk and it has to depend on external forces.
Saudi Arabia is also worried about its own security amid the changing situation in the Middle East and now wants to become independent in this matter.
Mudassar Khan says that ‘Saudi Arabian leaders have understood that although the United States provides weapons and other technology, when it comes to security, they cannot completely depend on the United States. They understood this better during the attack on Saudi Arabia’s oil pipelines during the conflict with the Houthis in Yemen.’
It would not be surprising if Saudi-Iranian relations strengthen further amid the changing situation in the Middle East.
However, while Iran has a direct aggressive attitude against Israel, Saudi Arabia would like to avoid such a situation.
Mudassar Khan says that ‘In the event of a military conflict between Israel and Iran, Saudi Arabia would want to make it clear that it is not on either side in this conflict. Saudi Arabia would like to stay out of this conflict.
Related Topics
#Saudi_Arabia #Iran #Middle_East #Palestine #Israel
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